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【紹介】ナカラ回廊/ナカラ鉄道が2度武装攻撃+汚職問題

現地からの報道で、10月3日、10月6日、モザンビーク北部ナカラ鉄道上のヴァーレ社所有(*三井物産との関係については、次の同社リリース参照)の貨物列車に対して、レナモによる武装攻撃が二度にわたって行われたということです。場所は、ニアサ州クアンバ郡そしてナンプーラ州マレマ郡ムトゥアリで、日本の援助の対象郡でもあります。
なお、三井物産がヴァーレ(VALE)社のモアティゼ炭鉱とナカラ回廊鉄道・港湾インフラ事業の取得に合意したとのプレスリリースが出ていますので、あわせて紹介します。また、モザンビーク政府高官(前大統領・国防省関係者<前政権での国防大臣は現大統領>)らの関与する「国営企業」による隠し債務問題によりIMF融資がストップしている点についても続報が入っています。「消えた債務問題」…国内では通貨メティカルが大暴落し、これまで1ドル34-36メティカルであったものが、70メティカルを超えており、市民生活を直撃しています。なぜなら、債務返済は「国家」が行わねばならず、かつそれは「モザンビーク人全体」の負担とされてしまっているからです。
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2016年9月30日
三井物産プレスリリース「モザンビークにおける炭鉱及び鉄道・港湾インフラ事業への出資参画について」

三井物産株式会社(本社:東京都千代田区、社長:安永竜夫、以下「三井物産」)は、総合資源会社であるVale S.A.(以下「Vale社」)と新たな参画条件に基づき、Vale社がモザンビーク共和国で開発中のモアティーズ炭鉱(以下「本炭鉱」)の95%権益を 保有するVale社子会社の15%持分、及びナカラ回廊鉄道・港湾インフラ事業(以下「本インフラ事業」)を推進するVale社子会社の50%持分を取得 する事に合意しました。
http://www.mitsui.com/jp/ja/release/2016/1220831_8913.html


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MOZAMBIQUE 340

News reports & clippings

10 October 2016

Nacala railway attacked

Trains on the railway from Malawi to Nacala port were attacked twice last week - the first attacks on the northern railway in this phase of the renewed war. On Thursday 6 October at 01.00 gunmen shot at a Vale coal train heading toward Nacala. The locomotive windscreen was shattered and shards of glass injured the engine driver. The attack was in Mutuali, Malema, 40 km east of Cuamba.

On Monday 3 October at 23.00 gunmen shot at a train in Muriza, Niassa, 18 kilometres east of Cuamba. This was a CFM train with just ten empty wagons going to Nacala. Three police and three drivers were in the locomotive, and one of the drivers was shot in the leg.

Meanwhile, the government has admitted that Vale has not been sending any coal on the Sena railway line to Beira for the past two months, since the last attack on that line. Government is now negotiating with Vale about how to provide protection on the Sena line. (O Pais and AIM Pt 7, 8 Oct)

A group of 13 Renamo men attacked the town of Mecua in Meconta district, Nampula on 3 October, damaging the government office and burning documents and a car and motorcycle, as well taking bedding from the health post. (AIM Pt 3 Oct)

$900 mn for arms?

More than half of the more than $2 billion in secret loans around Ematum and maritime security have never been explained. Africa Confidential (7 Oct), which has been unusually well informed on the secret debt, reports that $900 million of the secret loans has been passed on to companies owned by members of the Frelimo elite to buy assault rifles, armoured cars and other weapons from Israel and elsewhere for the escalating war against Renamo. There are indications of substantial commissions. The report is buried in a somewhat confusing article, which has been largely reprinted by Rhula (30 Sep to 7 Oct) and which will eventually appear on http://www.rhula.net/news-announcements.html

Sell gas in advance
to pay debt?

As predicted here in June, Mozambique will try to sell in advance large parts of its 15-20% share of the gas to be produced in Cabo Delgado in order to pay off the secret debt. Ragendra de Sousa, the recently appointed Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade, told the Portuguese newspaper Publico (30 Sept) "If we sell the gas in advance, the receipts will be far greater than the debt." (Mozambique News Reports & Clippings 325, 8 June) https://www.publico.pt/economia/noticia/nao-preciso-que-o-fmi-me-venha-dar-aulas-eu-estudei-na-mesma-escola-1745599

Mozambique is already committed to selling part of its gas to pay for its multibillion dollar share of the gas liquification plants. This and de Sousa's proposed sale, for example for gas for a pipeline to South Africa, will take all of Mozambique's share for several years. That means it will be at least a decade before Mozambique gains any revenues it could use.

De Sousa said the debt of the Guebuza government must be accepted, but renegotiated. "What the previous government did, the new government must take on," he said. "I argue that the country has to honour its commitments, but we do not have to honour the face value [of the debt] … We must renegotiate the terms and conditions."

"We have to see the ability that we have to pay and the time. I go to the lender and say that I can not afford to pay, either you renegotiate or we default. But then I say that the default is also yours, because you did not do due diligence. What will financial agencies Credit Suisse and the Soviets [VTB Group] say? We are all in the same boat, with very small margins. We have to pay, but they also need that Mozambique not say to their shareholders that they were not professional," he said.

How close are government
and IMF on the audit?

Mozambique appears to have accepted that it will get no money from the IMF until an acceptable audit of the secret debt is under way, and the financial gap will have to be filled by sales of gas and other assets. But the government and IMF may be closer than is realised on the question of how to do an independent external audit.

"The President did not say that the audit will be done under the command of the PRG [Attorney Genera's office, Procuradoria Geral da Republica de Mocambique]; what he asked is that it be done within [national] institutions. The team sent by the IMF would not work at the Hotel Polana but instead work at the Ministry of Economy and Finance," explained de Sousa in his Publico interview. "It continues to be external, as the IMF intends. What is the difference between making the audit in the Polana Hotel or at the offices of the PGR? The technicians are the same, the terms of reference of the audit will be by mutual agreement. If so, Mozambicans involved will learn. Making the audit in the Polana. no one learns; doing it in London, all we will receive is 500 pages of paper, while the rest stays there. It seems to me fair and sensible. … Another advantage of having the audit inside the PGR is that if there are criminal matters, action can be taken right there in the PGR."

In an 8 October press briefing IMF African Department Director Abebe Aemro Selassie said: "The good news here is that there’s a good agreement between the government [of Mozambique] and the IMF on some of the key prerequisites for the audit. That is that there will be an independent audit undertaken of the loans that have been taken up by state owned enterprises, and that this audit will be made public. Will be published. So I think this is a very good understanding. We are going to wait to see how that evolves in the coming months." And following the 15 September meeting in Washington between IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde and President Filipe Nyusi, the IMF issued a statement saying that "the Managing Director welcomed that the President indicated the Government of Mozambique’s willingness to work with the IMF on the terms-of-reference for this process - to be initiated by the office of the Attorney General - and to implement it."
http://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2016/10/08/AM16-TR100716-Transcript-of-African-Department-Press-Briefing http://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2016/09/15/PR16411-Mozambique-IMF-Statement

Clearly there is much negotiation still to come as to how much power the PRG will have and how far the audit will go, but Mozambique seems to have won agreement to keep the audit within national institutions - and probably to be able to prevent prosecutions of senior people in Frelimo. In exchange, the Mozambicans appear to have accepted that it will be a long time before there will be any IMF money.

Finally, the US-trained economist de Sousa said that "it is not for the IMF to give me lessons. I studied at the same school."
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Appendix

プロフィール

MozambiqueKaihatsu

Author:MozambiqueKaihatsu
「モザンビーク開発を考える市民の会」の公式サイトへようこそ!本サイトでは、モザンビークの草の根の人びとの側に立った現地・日本・世界の情報共有を行っています。特に、現地住民に他大な影響を及ぼす日本のODA農業開発事業「プロサバンナ」や投資「鉱物資源開発」に注目しつつ、モデルとされるブラジル・セラード開発についての議論も紹介。国際的な食・農・土地を巡る動きも追っています。

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